Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 2.084111 2.189643 2.302652 2.433617 2.582465 2.747967 2.948237
2025-10-05 1.998175 2.136600 2.291097 2.478934 2.705024 2.973994 3.327763
2025-10-12 1.953860 2.117425 2.305963 2.544330 2.845758 3.227350 3.772910
2025-10-19 1.883830 2.059520 2.266421 2.535132 2.887177 3.354326 4.069314
2025-10-26 1.832572 2.018736 2.242120 2.539331 2.941734 3.500714 4.419179
2025-11-02 1.765883 1.954527 2.183583 2.493122 2.921441 3.535436 4.597937
2025-11-09 1.720541 1.913791 2.151378 2.477824 2.940405 3.627462 4.892098
2025-11-16 1.681570 1.878767 2.123948 2.466009 2.961657 3.723636 5.218415
2025-11-23 1.644771 1.844632 2.095536 2.450269 2.974585 3.806543 5.543217
2025-11-30 1.623696 1.829356 2.090591 2.466042 3.035057 3.976032 6.119221
2025-12-07 1.572490 1.773456 2.029395 2.398590 2.961318 3.900896 6.087204
2025-12-14 1.542688 1.744333 2.002851 2.379310 2.961654 3.959013 6.420152
2025-12-21 1.506560 1.706797 1.964807 2.343250 2.935397 3.970118 6.651389
2025-12-28 1.500692 1.708458 1.979595 2.384694 3.037715 4.242352 7.850175
2026-01-04 1.501289 1.718425 2.005857 2.444454 3.176746 4.622221 9.991667
2026-01-11 1.479392 1.697516 1.988135 2.435938 3.196145 4.748071 11.293246
2026-01-18 1.462703 1.683051 1.978814 2.439700 3.237548 4.934348 13.501655
2026-01-25 1.432496 1.649479 1.941285 2.397340 3.190903 4.897362 13.999595
2026-02-01 1.412452 1.629249 1.922172 2.383274 3.195903 4.992724 16.169649
2026-02-08 1.394356 1.611211 1.905599 2.372404 3.205939 5.104074 19.449986
2026-02-15 1.376024 1.592406 1.887336 2.357936 3.207843 5.194659 23.817541
2026-02-22 1.367088 1.586226 1.887035 2.372388 3.267098 5.463766 43.969614
2026-03-01 1.336415 1.549424 1.841203 2.310418 3.170050 5.249120 33.878364